Taking into account a number of factors, the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Planning" reveals the short-term development of hybrid vehicles, and uses this as a signal for the long-term development of pure electric vehicles. According to the actual situation, there are only two types of new energy vehicles that can enter the mass production scale: hybrid and pure electric vehicles.
Weak industrial scale effect
From the traditional auto industry to the rise of new energy vehicles, China's auto industry has never gotten rid of the general status quo of being scattered and chaotic, and the effect of economies of scale within the industry is not obvious. China's territory is vast, the forms of enterprises in different regions are quite different, and the market supervision is limited. Although it has carried out many industrial restructuring and enterprise resource integration, it cannot fundamentally form three American-style automakers with a market share of more than 90%. scale effect. The research and development of new energy vehicles requires a lot of investment in capital and technical talents. In the absence of industrial scale effect, each company's "closed door" is prone to problems such as inconsistent technical standards and inconsistent industrial development pace, which is not conducive to the new energy vehicle industry. pattern formation and subsequent development. In addition, the new energy vehicle industry is faced with the rush and "overcapacity" caused by the pursuit of profits and subsidies. Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Hubei, Shanghai and other places have successively established regional auto industry alliances. The members of the alliance cooperate closely, but there is little contact between the alliances, and a situation of separate feudal lords is formed.
Cost too high
The cost of the car determines the price, and the price determines the market. At present, among the new energy vehicles in the Chinese market, the price of domestic pure electric vehicles is not high. There is no price problem for consumers to buy pure electric vehicles. The high price is Hybrid.
It is understood that in 2009, the sales volume of hybrid vehicles in the US market was 290,300, accounting for 2.8% of all vehicle sales in the US. Compared with the advanced automobile countries, the domestic hybrid vehicle industrialization and market promotion are obviously far behind. The main reason is that the price is too high, which inhibits the desire of many people to buy. As Wagner said, how to reduce the cost of hybrid vehicles to a level that ordinary users can afford is the problem that hybrid vehicles have to face. After all, price is also one of the decisive factors in the market.
Among the hybrid models currently on sale in the domestic market, the average price of a hybrid vehicle is at least 30% higher than that of an internal combustion engine-driven vehicle of the same displacement. If a traditional car is priced at 100,000 yuan, and a hybrid car with the same displacement is 130,000 yuan, and the annual mileage of the car is 30,000 kilometers, if the oil price is 10 yuan per liter, then the energy-saving benefit of a hybrid vehicle can reach 20,000 yuan. , it takes 4.3 years, the lower the oil price, the longer the payback period, while the acceptable payback period for ordinary consumers is 1.5 years.
Short battery life
The large-scale rollout of pure electric vehicles looks brighter than hybrid vehicles. Not only because of the nearly zero-emission environmental protection standards of pure electric vehicles, but also because of their cheap price and low cost of use, which can already be comparable to traditional cars in price. The price of pure electric vehicles is mostly no more than 100,000 yuan, and some are even lower than fuel vehicles of the same displacement. Due to the complete use of the electric energy supply system, the use cost of pure electric vehicles is lower than that of hybrid vehicles. According to the data released by a certain pure electric vehicle, 100 kilometers of driving consumes 12 degrees of electricity. According to the electricity price of 0.5 yuan, the cost of 100 kilometers is only 6 yuan. And its prototype gasoline car consumes 7.6 liters of fuel per 100 kilometers. According to the current oil price of 6.2 yuan, the cost is 46.5 yuan. By comparison, electric vehicles cost one-eighth the cost of conventional gasoline vehicles. In addition, pure electric vehicles save at least 4/5 of the cost of use compared to gasoline vehicles of the same level. As soon as pure electric vehicles are launched, they are highly praised by consumers, so they can receive the highest government subsidies and become China's future new energy vehicle development industry. The target is also understandable.
However, the development of pure electric vehicles in China is still far from satisfactory. The reason is that there is still a gap between China's electric vehicle technology and foreign technology, especially in the core technologies of pure electric vehicle batteries, motors and other core technologies that have not yet achieved breakthroughs, which are manifested in the gap between the battery cruising range and foreign countries. many. The cruising range of domestic electric vehicles is only about 100 kilometers per full charge, while the cruising range of foreign pure electric vehicles is often 240 kilometers, and the cruising range of higher configuration is more than 300 kilometers. Therefore, China's electric vehicles can meet the needs of commuting, but there is still a gap for customers in Europe and the United States who like self-driving tours and other long-distance needs.